It’s mid-October, the weather is cooling, we have a pretty good idea of what our top football teams are and as tradition would have it, now is the time when we start talking about everyone’s postseason chances.
Having covered the Big Country since 2006, I’ve been through seasons when we’ve sent five or more teams to state championship games. And in general, we almost always send at least two, so championship chat around the water cooler isn’t unrealistic at this point.
That said, it’s time to take a quick peek at those teams that I believe have the best chance of playing for a state title in December at AT&T Stadium.
We’ll break it down into three categories: Favorites (those I expect to see in Arlington), contenders (those who might get there) and longshots (those who can get there if things line up just right).
FAVORITES
CLASS 4A DIVISION I
Stephenville (7-0, 1-0 District 4A DI) — The Yellow Jackets are unlikely to be challenged until a state quarterfinal matchup with Canyon West Plains and as it stands right now, SHS would be a favorite to win that. Difficult matchups with either Celina or Alvarado would likely follow, but the ‘Jackets would have an edge on paper and nobody in Texas is playing better defensively.
CLASS 3A DIVISION II
Wall (8-0, 2-0 District 4 3A DII) — The Hawks will sweep their district and punch their way through four playoff rounds to the state semifinals. There, they will likely meet Gunter in a rematch of last year’s 4A DII state semis that saw Wall’s season end in 2024. As it stands right now, Wall will have a better-than-average chance of knocking off GHS and reaching the state title game.
CLASS 1A DIVISION I
Gordon (7-0, 2-0 District 13-1A DI) — When I saw that one computer is projecting Gordon to lose in the state semifinals to Aquilla (13-0) I could do little more than shake my head and chuckle. The Longhorns will win every six-man game they play this year, including the state championship game at Jerry World. They might fall in an 11-man matchup with Brackettville this week, but there are worse crimes for a six-man team to commit. The Longhorns are loaded and no 1A team has the goods to stop them.
CLASS 1A DIVISION I
Jayton (8-0, 2-0 District 8-1A DII) — The Jaybirds aren’t an overwhelming favorite to repeat at Class 1A DII state champions, but they are favorites nonetheless. Along the way, they will likely have to eliminate powerhouses from Benjamin and Lamesa Klondike before facing either Richland Springs, Strawn or perhaps Oglesby for the crown.
That’s a tough road.
CONTENDERS
CLASS 4A DIVISION II
Brock (7-0, 2-0 District 3-4A DII) — The Eagles have Midland Greenwood and Lubbock Cooper Liberty to worry about in Region I and a likely slugfest with Carthage in the state semis. Yet they have better than a coinflip’s chance of getting to that Carthage game. They’re an underdog to get all the way to Arlington, albeit, a slight underdog, so anything can happen.
CLASS 4A DIVISION II
Jim Ned (6-1, 2-0 District 3-3A DI) — Yes, the Indians lost 24-0 to Wall. But in retrospect, that was a great showing against a Wall team that might win the 3A DII state title. The Indians have won four straight games since and will likely run the district table. Their road to Arlington will be treacherous, however, with Paradise, Shallowater and Commerce among the teams trying to block their path. The Indians are quite capable of defeating any of them. But beating all of them in succession would present a real challenge for anyone in this class.
CLASS 1A DIVISION II
Richland Springs (5-1, 1-0 District 15-1A DII) — As always, the Coyotes are in the mix when it comes to teams with a chance of reaching Arlington. They’ve won five straight games since losing to Gordon in their season opener and their side of the potential postseason bracket is favorable for a deep run. Oglesby and Strawn will stand as potential roadblocks along the way if Richland Springs gets to the state quarterfinals.
LONGSHOTS
CLASS 2A DIVISION I
De Leon (5-2, 2-0 District 5-2A) — While the Big Country is well-stocked with quality 2A DI teams, including Hawley, Cisco, Stamford and Anson, it is De Leon that strikes me as the best-equipped for a march to Arlington. The Bearcats have won four of their last five games and already have a quality win over Hawley. But their potential road to Arlington could see them facing powerhouses from Corsicana Mildred, Tioga, Frankston and Panhandle before they even get a peek at Jerry World. Being forced to win that many close games in succession puts them in the longshot category.
CLASS 2A DIVISION II
Albany (5-2, 2-0 District 7-2A DII) — 
Yet again, the Lions are among the top 2A DII teams in Texas. But here’s the problem: Top-ranked Muenster (5-2, 2-0 District 8-2A) will likely be blocking Albany’s path by the third round. If the Lions knock off MHS, likely matchups with Windthorst and Wink would follow, both of which currently rate as tossups against the Lions. That’s a tough path, but Albany still rates as the Big Country’s best chance at a state title in 2A DII.